Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
